Parameters
% of real yield paid out to projects each year
Subtract from nominal return for pessimistic scenario
Base Scenario
Real return (Fisher)
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Year-1 distribution
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Final nominal principal
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Final real principal
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Cumulative distributions
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Downside Scenario
Downside nominal return
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Final nominal principal
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Cumulative distributions
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Year-by-Year Projection
Nominal principal (base)
Real principal (base)
Cumul. distributions (base)
Nominal principal (downside)
Cumul. distributions (downside)
Year-by-Year Detail
| Year | Nominal Principal | Real Principal | Distribution | Cumul. Distributions | ↓ Nominal Principal | ↓ Distribution |
|---|
Model Notes
- Principal preservation: each year the fund earns a nominal return, keeps enough to match inflation (the "inflation floor"), and distributes the rest (the real yield) at the configured rate.
- Formula: distributable = P × (r_nominal − inflation); distribution = distributable × dist_rate; P_next = P × (1 + r_nominal) − distribution.
- Real principal: nominal principal deflated by (1 + inflation)^t — shows purchasing power in today's dollars.
- Distribution rate = 100%: all real yield is paid out; real principal stays exactly constant.
- Distribution rate < 100%: retained share compounds in real terms — the endowment grows.
- Downside scenario: same model with nominal return reduced by the downside margin. If return < inflation, no distributions are made and principal erodes in real terms.
- This is a simulator, not a ledger. No transactions are recorded. All projections are hypothetical.